Pengaruh Gejolak Geopolitik di Timur Tengah terhadap Supply Kapasitas Reasuransi Global dan Dampaknya terhadap Pendapatan Brokerage Perusahaan Broker Reasuransi

Abstract

ABSTRAK

Penelitian ini menganalisis bagaimana gejolak geopolitik di Timur Tengah—khususnya rangkaian konflik Israel–Hamas, serangan Houthi di Laut Merah, serta eskalasi ketegangan yang melibatkan Iran di sekitar Selat Hormuz—memengaruhi penawaran (supply) kapasitas reasuransi global dan, pada gilirannya, pendapatan brokerage perusahaan broker reasuransi. Menggunakan metode kualitatif deskriptif-analitis dengan basis studi kepustakaan dan data sekunder dari laporan broker global (Aon, Guy Carpenter, Gallagher Re, Howden Re), lembaga pemeringkat (S&P, Moody’s, Morningstar DBRS), serta data pasar marine war risk, penelitian menemukan adanya paradoks penawaran kapasitas. Pada tingkat agregat, kapital reasuransi global mencapai rekor tertinggi sekitar USD 785 miliar pada akhir 2025 sehingga memicu pasar lunak (soft market) dengan penurunan tarif yang tajam pada lini katastrofa properti. Namun pada lini spesialis yang sensitif terhadap konflik (marine war, aviation war, terrorism, political violence, dan cyber), kapasitas justru mengetat, dengan repricing premi yang ekstrem, klausul pembatalan tujuh hari, kenaikan attachment point, dan perluasan pengecualian. Dampak terhadap pendapatan brokerage bersifat dua arah: pelunakan tarif lini inti menekan brokerage per unit, sementara repricing dan lonjakan permintaan pada lini spesialis, peningkatan penempatan fakultatif, serta jasa advisory dan structuring justru menopang pendapatan. Secara empiris, pertumbuhan organik divisi reasuransi broker besar tetap tangguh pada kisaran 6–8% sepanjang 2025–2026. Penelitian menyimpulkan bahwa gejolak Timur Tengah berperan sebagai penyangga (cushion) dan sumber margin tinggi yang spesifik, bukan sebagai pendorong utama pendapatan brokerage, karena lini terdampak hanya merupakan irisan kecil dari kolam premi reasuransi global.

Kata kunci: risiko geopolitik; kapasitas reasuransi; soft market; marine war risk; pendapatan brokerage; broker reasuransi.

ABSTRACT

This study analyses how geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East—particularly the Israel–Hamas conflict, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, and the escalation of tensions involving Iran around the Strait of Hormuz—affects the supply of global reinsurance capacity and, in turn, the brokerage income of reinsurance broking firms. Using a qualitative descriptive-analytical method based on a literature review and secondary data from global broker reports (Aon, Guy Carpenter, Gallagher Re, Howden Re), rating agencies (S&P, Moody’s, Morningstar DBRS), and marine war-risk pricing data, the study identifies a capacity-supply paradox. At the aggregate level, global reinsurance capital reached a record high of around USD 785 billion at year-end 2025, driving a soft market with sharp rate reductions in property catastrophe lines. Yet in conflict-sensitive specialty lines (marine war, aviation war, terrorism, political violence, and cyber), capacity tightened, with extreme premium repricing, seven-day cancellation clauses, higher attachment points, and broadened exclusions. The effect on brokerage income is two-directional: softening core-line rates compress per-unit brokerage, while repricing and surging demand in specialty lines, increased facultative placements, and advisory and structuring services support income. Empirically, the organic growth of major brokers’ reinsurance divisions remained resilient at 6–8% throughout 2025–2026. The study concludes that Middle East turmoil acts as a cushion and a high-margin niche rather than the principal driver of brokerage income, because the affected lines represent only a small slice of the global reinsurance premium pool.

Keywords: geopolitical risk; reinsurance capacity; soft market; marine war risk; brokerage income; reinsurance broker.